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| Israel and Gaza [message #13997] |
Mon, 23 October 2023 14:52  |
 Mark L
Messages: 834
Registered: October 2006
Location: Canada |
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I just read an excellent analysis of the situation in Israel by a Canadian commentator whom I sometimes agree with. (post below) To any knowledgeable observer, you can really see the Middle East getting set up for the Gog war.
My own opinion is that for one reason or another Israel won't invade Gaza. Israel is really in a quandary here. It doesn't matter what they do they lose. I think they will content themselves with eliminating the terrorists one at a time. The Mossad and Shin Bet agencies are already collaborating on that.
My reasons for that are
1. It simply isn't time.
2. As Francis points out there isn't an endgame.
For the Christian with an understanding of spiritual things, we need to look beyond what we see here with our eyes. Dan.10 really applies here. It's the spiritual rulers over the various players that matter. Ask the Lord to open your eyes.
[Updated on: Mon, 23 October 2023 15:04]
Fires will be kindled to testify that two and two make four. Swords will be drawn to prove that leaves are green in summer.”
G.K. Chesterton
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| Re: Israel and Gaza [message #13998 is a reply to message #13997] |
Mon, 23 October 2023 14:54  |
Mark L
Messages: 834
Registered: October 2006
Location: Canada |
Senior Member |
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Israel: A Trap and No Endgame
October 23, 2023
Diane Francis
Oct 23, 2023
Israel and Ukraine are enmeshed in wars, refugee crises, destabilization, and a constant stream of coverage and footage showing civilian suffering and cities reduced to rubble. America helps both, but the difference is that Ukraine's refugees are sheltered in Europe and the country will eventually join the European Union. By contrast, Israel's government has no end game and is about to invade despite a caution issued by President Joe Biden. Diplomacy and prudence are required but are not evident. Hamas obviously sets a trap: The release of two hostages this week and promise of more has given the terrorists more time to booby-trap northern Gaza and move their fighters, equipment, and the hostages elsewhere. And more tricks await. Once the tanks roll in, Hamas will broadcast fake depictions of Israeli atrocities to generate terrible headlines and further alienate Arab states. And Israel's intention to permanently pull out of Gaza after the invasion is not an endgame, but a disaster waiting to happen. What becomes of Gaza's 2.3 million people as well as to the other 2.4 million Palestinians living in the West Bank with 670,000 Israeli "settlers" who intend to displace them? What will happen to neighboring states such as Lebanon and Jordan and Iraq, or to Israel's economy and reputation? The stakes are too high and an invasion solves nothing, especially because Hamas and the hostages will likely be gone if they aren't already. There is, and always has been, only one viable solution which is to address the Palestinian problem.
The outcome and execution of this war, and its aftermath, will determine whether the Middle East is set on fire or not. Iran's goal is to destroy Israel, and the West, with two weapons: Bankrolling terrorism and perpetuating the Palestinian problem. The Oct. 7 massacre by Iran's proxy, Hamas, was mounted to derail the US-brokered deal with Israel and Saudi Arabia because it would have improved relations and addressed the Palestinian situation. The three-way agreement would have normalized relations, invested $90 billion to economically develop Gaza and the West Bank, and guaranteed Saudis protection from Iran. The deal is now off the table, but must somehow be resurrected.
Before that can happen, the Arabs and the West must mediate a solution to this looming humanitarian disaster. As one regional security source said bluntly: "Israel doesn't have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the day after."
Unfortunately, it appears that Israel's plan is to decimate Hamas and its infrastructure then declare victory and exit. The Financial Times quoted an unnamed Israeli official who vowed that "Israel will not be part of the solution in terms of giving [Gazans] work. We've disconnected the umbilical cord" and he added that all existing border crossings between Gaza and Israel will be permanently closed. Even Isaac Herzog, the President of Israel, concurred. "We have no desire to occupy or reoccupy Gaza. We have no desire to rule over the lives of more than two million Palestinians," he said in an recent interview with CNN.
The spectre of a strategically-placed power vacuum, with 2.3 million starving people, is a nightmare scenario. Gaza would become a staging ground for misery, terrorism, and crime on an industrial scale. This possibility is top of mind in the meetings currently being held in Cairo among regional and global leaders. The question is who will govern Gaza after Israel washes its hands?One proposed scenario would be to put the Palestinian Authority, which nominally runs the West Bank, in charge. But this is a non-starter because that administration is riddled with corruption and incompetence and has been incapable of preventing Israeli settlers from illegally annexing land there. This will spiral into another civil war. A second option would be create an interim government in Gaza, backed by the UN and Arab nations, to rebuild and restore order. But this would require UN Security Council approval and Russia, Iran's ally, would veto such an initiative. A third possibility would be if Arab nations, led by the wealthy Gulf states and the U.S. and Europe, devised a reasonable two-state solution. This may seem impossible, but it's time that Arab states realize that they too, like Palestinians and Israelis, are being held hostage by Iran.
Iran holds the region hostage
In the absence of a coalition ready to act, there appears to be a gang-up afoot which will badly backfire. The Guardian ran an opinion piece headlined "Israel's endgame is to push Palestinians into Egypt's large Sinai region -- and the west is cheering it on." It claims that Western governments are offering large economic incentives to Cairo, a claim corroborated by Egyptian news site Mada Masr. But its government pushes back. Firstly, a flood of refugees could endanger Egypt itself which is in the midst of an economic crisis and currency devaluation. Egyptians also fear the upheaval and terrorists that may upend their society from such a massive influx and its President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has rejected any forced displacement flat out. He said imposing such a move would constitute a war crime and turn the Sinai into a base for attacks against Israel. The King of Jordan has also refused to accept more refugees. At this point, Jordan houses a disproportionate number and has 760,000 displaced persons, mostly Syrians, who were orphaned following their civil war which was stoked by Iran and Russia.
Tom Friedland, a Middle East expert and influential New York Times' columnist, argues fiercely against an Israeli invasion. "If Israel goes into Gaza and takes months to kill or capture every Hamas leader and soldier but does so while expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank -- thereby making any two-state solution there with the more moderate Palestinian Authority impossible -- there will be no legitimate Palestinian or Arab League or European or UN or NATO coalition that will ever be prepared to go into Gaza and take it off Israel's hands. There will be no one to help Israel pay the cost of caring for more than two million Gazans -- not if Israel is run by a government that thinks, and acts, as if it can justifiably exact its revenge on Hamas while unjustifiably building an apartheid-like society run by Jewish supremacists in the West Bank."
The situation escalates. Over the weekend, Iran and Israel traded threats and the Americans moved more ships into the Persian Gulf. But the solution is not force or more revenge, and never has been. The only panacea is for the region to finally address its Palestinian problem in order to end decades of turmoil and avert a wider war. There simply is no other alternative.
[Updated on: Mon, 23 October 2023 21:56]
Fires will be kindled to testify that two and two make four. Swords will be drawn to prove that leaves are green in summer.”
G.K. Chesterton
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| Re: Israel and Gaza [message #14072 is a reply to message #14071] |
Wed, 03 January 2024 16:09 |
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william
Messages: 1451
Registered: January 2006 |
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Ha! Once back in the 80s (...er, EARLY 80s!) that's like over 40 years ago!
Anyway, what I'm wondering-- does that include being wrong about having no "endgame" AND "It simply isn't time"?
I may have asked this before but what exactly do you think must happen for it to be time for these things (Gog) to take place?
Eze 38 seems a little ambiguous concerning those who "are at rest" and "dwell safely":
: And thou shalt say, I will go up to the land of unwalled villages; I will go to them that are at rest, that dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars nor gates, [Eze 38:11 KJV]
Other verses in this chapter seem to indicate that Israel will be in a state of dwelling safely so I guess the question would be -- does Israel "think" that they are safe?
The "evil thought" from Gog (Eze 38:10) proceeds from the assumption that they are indeed safe, so how relative is this "safety"? and does this safe condition stem from assurances from the West about support, etc.?
I'm just wondering (again) about why all of this couldn't happen tomorrow?
Blessings,
William
I want to believe!
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| Re: Israel and Gaza [message #14074 is a reply to message #14072] |
Wed, 03 January 2024 19:22 |
Mark L
Messages: 834
Registered: October 2006
Location: Canada |
Senior Member |
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I would have 2 reasons why I don't think it is time.
Russia will be deeply involved in the Gog war and they are very tied up in Ukraine. Militarily Russia isn't where it was during the cold war. I think they would be hard pressed to fight two regional wars at the same time.
The other reason is that America is still standing strongly behind Israel. That could change over night but I can't see any reason for that happening. A change of gov't with a strongly isolationist president could do it or something more serious. I just can't at this point see any reason why America would step away from standing with Israel.
Even all the back and forth with Hezbula/Lebanon and Syria hasn't gone much beyond some chest thumping and loud talk. It looks to me like all the players are limiting their efforts. Probably because of some serious talk from the US.
I don't know what is going to happen when they are done with the invasion except the world is going to have to be involved somehow. The entire world seems to be in a state of flux right now. Although confusion is probably too strong a word for that. Somewhere around half the nations in the world are looking at a potential change of gov't next year.
With some small adjustments concerning Russia and the US this could have easily turned into the Gog war. I think what is happening right now is a divinely ordained temporarily holding it back.
This Hamas attack has really upset all my carefully reasoned thoughts and ideas. It really goes to show one can't get too dogmatic about endtimes.
Fires will be kindled to testify that two and two make four. Swords will be drawn to prove that leaves are green in summer.”
G.K. Chesterton
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| Re: Israel and Gaza [message #14075 is a reply to message #14074] |
Wed, 03 January 2024 20:34 |
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william
Messages: 1451
Registered: January 2006 |
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Quote:I don't know what is going to happen when they are done with the invasion except the world is going to have to be involved somehow.
What do you think about Sheba, Dedan, and the rest of the "young lions"? They seem not to be involved beyond merely questioning the Gog invasion. I believe it was Chuck Missler that speculated (he made it clear that this was merely one of other possibilities) that this group included Saudi Arabia, England, and that the "young lions" could be construed as the US, and other satellite nations, loosely described as "the West".
I think you mentioned somewhere that the US non-involvement might be due to other circumstances and not necessarily the abandonment of it's commitment to Israel. If this is the case it would only take a few days of White House inactivity to incapacitate any support the US could give, especially if this invasion took place quickly and God Himself moved swiftly on Israel's behalf.
Anyway, the present conflict seems to be a smaller concentric circle than the one involved in the Gog conflict but you've certainly got some of those larger-circle players (Russia, Iran...) involved with money and expertise. I'm not sure but there may be a significant enough reason (or hook) for them to jump in with more than a support role, soon.
Blessings,
William
I want to believe!
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